In a campaign season dominated by sex tapes聽and Twitter insults, wonky questions surrounding the price of carbon or what to do about our public lands haven鈥檛 gotten much airtime鈥攑articularly during the first two presidential debates. But few issues underscore the wide chasm between the Republican and Democratic presidential nominees more than the environment.
These are the issues that will help define the next president鈥檚 first term, and the distance between the personal beliefs and policy proposals of Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton is worth exploring. We did our best to extrapolate Trump鈥檚 vision from his various public comments聽(it wasn鈥檛 easy). With Clinton, who aims to expand on the ambitious environmental policies championed by President Obama, the picture is clearer: she鈥檚 going to be aggressive.
Here鈥檚 a breakdown of聽what Clinton hopes to accomplish if聽she wins the Oval Office, and what it means.聽
Climate Change and Renewable Energy
In contrast to Obama, who barely mentioned the issue when he was running for reelection in 2012, Clinton has made tackling climate change a major theme in her campaign. She鈥檚 mentioned it during both the primary and general election debates, mocking Trump during the first debate by saying, 鈥淒onald thinks that climate change is a hoax perpetrated by the Chinese. I think it's real.鈥 Trump replied, 鈥淚 did not. I did not. I do not say that.鈥 (He actually , and he has also questioned whether global warming is even underway.)聽
Clinton has by as much as 30 percent below 2005 levels by 2025, and 80 percent by mid-century. She鈥檚 also pledged to cut U.S. oil consumption by a third, ensure that half a billion solar panels will be installed by 2020, and carry out a ten-fold increase in renewable energy production on public lands. On top of that, she aims to provide $60 billion to state and city officials through a 鈥渃lean energy challenge fund鈥 so they can reduce their carbon output and enhance their resilience to climate impacts, along with another聽$30 billion to struggling coal communities.聽
Such ideas make Clinton attractive to environmentalists.聽鈥淚t鈥檚 probably fair to say that, by the time his term is over, President Obama will be regarded as the most environmental president we鈥檝e ever seen, and yet we鈥檙e confident Secretary Clinton will build on this record, and even do more,鈥 says League of Conservation Voters President Gene Karpinski, whose group is pouring $10 million into the presidential race this cycle.
Clinton鈥檚 2020 overall emissions target is more aggressive than what Obama has pledged under the Paris climate agreement.聽Her solar plan, for example, suggests that the U.S. will have 140 gigawatts of installed solar by the end of 2020, compared to the 100 gigawatts聽that鈥檚 now projected. But the question of whether she can deliver on her promises remains鈥攅specially since she has yet to embrace the idea of imposing a sweeping carbon tax, and it鈥檚 unlikely that Congress would hand over tens of billions of dollars to her administration if she鈥檚 elected. While Clinton has vowed to defend federal regulations limiting the carbon output of existing power plants, which are currently being challenged in court, she will have to do much more than that in order to meet her professed goals.聽
Clinton鈥檚 aides point to a few federal levers that Obama has not yet pulled, such as generating as much as 12 gigawatts in hydropower from inactive Army Corps of Engineers dams and spurring municipalities to shorten their permitting process. But Joseph E. Aldy, an associate professor of public policy at Harvard University鈥檚 John F. Kennedy School of Government, wrote a critique of Clinton鈥檚 overall approach in the , outlining how inefficient it can be to add on incremental incentive programs for cutting emissions when others are already in place. Such moves could disproportionately impact poor Americans, he noted, or increase overall costs.聽鈥淭o drive the innovation necessary to realize the long-term goal and to attain it in a cost-effective manner requires an economy-wide price on carbon,” he concluded.
Republicans, for their part, have accused Clinton of waging 鈥渁 war on coal,鈥 pointing to her own on how she plans to expand clean energy in Appalachia and elsewhere 鈥渂ecause we鈥檙e going to put a lot of coal miners and coal companies out of business, right?鈥澛燬cott Segal, a partner at the law firm Bracewell聽LLP聽who represents energy companies, some of which burn coal,聽says that Clinton鈥檚 record as a senator suggests she might be more consensus-oriented than her campaign rhetoric implies. 鈥淭his approach to the legislative branch suggests the potential for a more pragmatic approach to a range of environmental issues,鈥 Segal says. 鈥淪he may focus on a few key priorities in this space and allow for cooperation elsewhere.鈥
Conservation on Public Lands and in Federal Waters
On this front, Clinton has staked out one position to the left of Obama鈥攕he opposes offshore oil drilling in the Arctic Ocean and off the Atlantic Coast鈥攁nd is pushing for a doubling of the outdoor recreation economy within a decade. The Democratic nominee has vowed to unlock access to at least 2 million acres of currently inaccessible public lands by the end of her first term, and to revitalize more than 3,000 city parks within ten years. Like Obama, Clinton says she will work to increase recognition of communities of color, women and lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transgender Americans among national parks, monuments and memorials.
Amy Roberts, executive director of the Outdoor Industry Association, says the fact that Clinton has vowed to double the outdoor economy marks the first time a presidential candidate has talked about her industry 鈥渋n a distinct way,鈥 rather than just as side benefit of conserving public lands. And former U.S. Senator聽Mark Udall (D-CO), who spoke on Clinton鈥檚 behalf to the OIA鈥檚 annual conference in September, wrote in an email that, 鈥淭here is only one thoughtful vote to cast for president in this election. Hillary Clinton.鈥
Clinton鈥檚 call for a halt to offshore drilling in the Arctic鈥攁 step that environmentalists have been seeking for years鈥攈as attracted little attention. Jack Gerard, president of the American Petroleum Institute, declined to comment on Clinton directly, but wrote in an email, 鈥淲e need an informed energy policy where we can learn about the potential resources in the Atlantic and Arctic. Expanding our offshore oil and natural gas development to new areas is critical to our nation鈥檚 long-term energy security.鈥
Wildlife
Though wildlife trafficking is far from a top-tier political issue, it鈥檚 been a priority of Clinton鈥檚 for some time. 鈥淚 am a Democrat, but I really like elephants,鈥 she remarked during a taping of The Ellen DeGeneres Show聽in May. According to David Hayes, who served as聽deputy secretary of the Interior聽under both Obama and Bill Clinton, Hillary Clinton became interested in elephants during a trip to Africa with her daughter while serving as First Lady. She pushed Obama to sign an executive order to combat wildlife trafficking in July 2013, and helped establish a non-governmental group鈥攖he Elephants Action Network鈥攖hrough the Clinton Foundation and Clinton Global Initiative. 鈥淓very time I see her, she asks me, 鈥楬ow are the elephants?鈥 he recalled.聽
Environmental Justice
You can sum up why Clinton has made the topic of environmental justice so prominent in her campaign in a single word: Flint. The lead contamination crisis in that largely black Michigan city commanded national attention this election cycle, and Clinton has invoked it repeatedly as an example of policymakers failing to pay enough attention to communities of color.聽
She has promised to eliminate lead as a major public health threat within five years, modernize the nation鈥檚 drinking and wastewater systems, reduce urban air pollution, and establish an Environmental and Climate Justice Task Force to ensure that federal decisions take account of the cumulative impacts vulnerable communities face when it comes to pollution.聽
鈥淭here are a lot of Flints across our country where children are exposed to polluted air, unhealthy water and chemicals that can increase cancer risk. And like Flint, they tend to be places that are home to poor people and people of color,鈥 Clinton . 鈥淓very child and every family in America deserves clean air to breathe, clean water to drink and a safe and healthy place to live. This a justice issue. It鈥檚 a civil rights issue. And as president, it will be a national priority for us.鈥