Early in January, a team of researchers from University College London . It took the most important fact about global warming鈥攖hat the world鈥檚 fossil fuel companies have already located five times more carbon than scientists say we can burn without overheating the planet鈥攁nd added a new layer of detail, exploring precisely which deposits should be left untouched. High on the list is Canada鈥檚 vast tar sands, which the authors said should be tapped for only a 鈥渘egligible鈥 amount of oil going forward if we are serious about dealing with climate change.
The paper came as vindication, as the long fight over the Keystone pipeline finally seems to be drawing to a close. The fight started with brave resistance from First Nations people in Alberta and ranchers in Nebraska, but it went global in 2011 when former NOAA climatologist James Hansen, the planet鈥檚 premier climate scientist, published a paper showing for the first time that a vast pool of carbon lay beneath the tar sands. Pump it all, he said, and it would be . Despite that warning, everyone thought Keystone was a done deal. In fact, a poll of 鈥渆nergy and environment insiders鈥澛爄n October 2011 found that 91 percent expected that TransCanada would receive its presidential permit in short order.
Keystone has drawn more Americans into the streets than any environmental issue in a generation, produced more comments to the government than any infrastructure project in history, and spawned more arrests than just about any cause for many years.
That the company hasn鈥檛 been awarded a permit is a triumph of organizing: Keystone has drawn more Americans into the streets than any environmental issue in a generation, produced more comments to the government than any infrastructure project in history, and spawned more arrests than just about any cause for many years.
If President Obama does the right thing, it will be the first time in history that a world leader has said, 鈥淗ere's a big project I'm not going to approve because of the climate.鈥 As the Nature article makes clear, this carbon deposit must remain substantially untapped if we鈥檙e to have a prayer of holding temperature increases to two degrees Celsius鈥攖he internationally recognized red line for climate. It鈥檚 not the only carbon pool we must leave alone. There are also the coalfields of Wyoming and Australia, the fracking zones of California and Poland, and the deep-sea deposits off Brazil and the Arctic. But Canada鈥檚 tar sands are a good place to start.
Author Bill McKibben () teaches at Middlebury College in Vermont and founded . In 2014 he was awarded the , sometimes called the “alternative Nobel,” in the Swedish Parliament.